What Does the Future Hold for SACU? From Own Goal to Laduma! Scenarios for the Future....

This paper discusses the outcomes of a recent scenario-planning exercise on the future of Southern African Customs Union (SACU), an exercise that involved a group of  SACU experts and other interested parties. The paper gives an account of the scenarios developed, which range from SACU collapsing to a scenario where it deepens into a common market.The exercise first mapped out the key certainties and uncertainties that SACU is facing. These range from the certainty that SACU will be impacted by the global economic slowdown to the uncertainty over whether an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) will be concluded and what the final content and configuration of this agreement will be. The impact of these circumstances (and others) will shape the future of SACU.

The key certainties and uncertainties identified were then used to map the likelihood of these elements transpiring and what their potential impact will be on SACU. They constitute the gameboard of the scenarios. On the gameboard four quadrants are envisaged, each representing a different future for SACU. SACU’s current position is noted on the board, as well as its ideal future. Driving forces are identified that would either move SACU towards or away from this ideal future. The group envisaged four possible futures for SACU and named them ‘Laduma! ’, ‘Wild Card’,‘Own Goal’ and ‘Red Card’, with ‘Laduma! ’ representing the quadrant in which SACU’s ideal future lies. Click here to read more...